Tonight, we’ll get the first taste of what a large consensus will do, not groups of hundreds, but groups of thousands. No one knows how this will go. There are too many factors at play. Those factors include:
The wildfires that destroyed much of Los Angeles.
The wildfire that destroyed Emilia Perez.
A ten-nominee preferential ballot at the PGA vs. a five-nominee majority vote ballot at DGA.
There was a lack of consensus because the audience had disappeared.
There is no frontrunner.
The election that has once again sent the industry spiraling into hysteria, though not quite as bad as last time.
I’ve already reviewed the stats, and they say that the strongest frontrunners are Anora and Conclave. But does that mean either of them will one or both tonight? Maybe. Maybe not.
Let’s look at the year 2015 for a possible comparison. The Revenant came into the race as the frontrunner. Then a scandal erupted – it was Leonardo DiCaprio and the bear. Remember that? Actually, I’m not sure what caused the backlash against it, but there was a backlash. So it went like this:
PGA-The Big Short
DGA-The Revenant
SAG-Spotlight
I was a fan of The Big Short when a narrative bloomed online that they were “bad white guys” – when I pointed out that the cast of Spotlight was mostly white too, the studio smacked me down hard. They were mad that I pointed out the obvious. That’s different, they insisted, because the cast of Spotlight were GOOD people doing GOOD things, not cheating people out of money. They had some honor bestowed upon them in Washington, DC, which tipped things over in Spotlight’s direction.
What movie this year has that GOOD people doing GOOD things aspect to it? It would have been Emilia Perez, but that’s out the window now. Anora is just a great screwball comedy with a deeply moving ending. Conclave has that element to it because its story is summed up as “the arc of history is long, but it bends toward justice,” and not justice in terms of an intersex person becoming pope, but justice in so much as it’s about giving the win to someone who deserves it, no matter their identity.
A Complete Unknown is about Bob Dylan and about staying true to your artistic vision, even if it makes people hate you. Ditto Wicked. The Substance is a hilarious, grotesque satire on women and sexuality. Dune Part Two, as successful as it is, is mostly an inherent story people can’t connect to.
The Brutalist might work as a Trump-hating film, but I’m not sure it lends itself to a universally moving experience. Maybe. Nickel Boys is perhaps brilliant but, like The Brutalist, is a difficult sit. I’m Still Here is more of a portrait of a woman or a portrait of Brazil’s painful past.
Your guess is as good as mine, friends. I initially thought A Complete Unknown and James Mangold are the two best No Guts, No Glory picks but those are more like alternates. It’s entirely possible it could happen so what might happen that seems impossible?
DGA–Edward Berger, Conclave
PGA–Conclave
Okay, your turn. See you a bit later for the long sit into the night.