Having now seen all 21 films in competition at the 76th Cannes Film Festival, it’s time for predictions.
A general observation upfront: Of the 8 times I’ve been to Cannes so far, this year’s comp lineup is – by some margin – the strongest. So many films deserve recognition some truly great ones are destined to go home empty-handed. In a year like this, it is particularly frustrating when the jury makes bad choices. They simply cannot afford to award any film that’s less than superb. Let’s take a look.
Best Screenplay
Will win: MONSTER
Should win: MAY DECEMBER
It’s a great year for screenwriting as any of the following would make for a deserving winner in my mind:
MAY DECEMBER
PERFECT DAYS
CLUB ZERO
ANATOMY OF A FALL
ABOUT DRY GRASSES
MONSTER
ANATOMY OF A FALL might be the most obvious choice because the nature of the film puts a lot of focus on the written word. But then ABOUT DRY GRASSES, with its long, profound dialogues, is certainly one striking piece of writing too. And if we are going by originality as the deciding criteria, CLUB ZERO probably takes the crown. Truly each of these screenplays stands out in its own way.
In the end I’m betting on Yûji Sakamoto’s work on Koreeda’s MONSTER to pull through for its humanist core, intricate structure and moving story. Not my personal favorite but I wouldn’t have a problem with that.
Best Actor
Will win: Deniz Celiloglu (ABOUT DRY GRASSES)
Should win: Kôji Yakusho (PERFECT DAYS)
The odds-on favorite here is veteran Japanese actor Kôji Yakusho for his soulful, wordlessly devastating performance in PERFECT DAYS. It would get my vote, too. Purely for the strategic reason that I think that film will win a major prize, thereby allowing the jury to award another film in this category, I’m going with Deniz Celiloglu, who also delivered a sensational, morally complex performance in Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s majestic ABOUT DRY GRASSES.
Overall there aren’t that many strong contenders for best actor this year. Outside the abovementioned, I could maybe, kind of imagine the following having a shot:
Josh O’Connor (LA CHIMERA)
Benoît Magimel (THE POT AU FEU)
Christian Friedel (THE ZONE OF INTEREST)
Hinata Hiiragi & Soya Kurokawa (MONSTER)
Best Actress
Will win: Sandra Hüller (ANATOMY OF A FALL)
Should win: Sandra Hüller (ANATOMY OF A FALL and/or THE ZONE OF INTEREST)
The competition in the best actress category is much fiercer by comparison. I sense a three-way race between Sandra Hüller for either one of her two films in the lineup, Natalie Portman (and Julianne Moore) for MAY DECEMBER and Léa Drucker for LAST SUMMER. You could make an argument for any one of these actresses winning and you’d have a point.
Ultimately I’m going with the most obvious choice because I think the fact that Hüller is phenomenal in two completely different films would tip things in her favor. And honestly, after watching ANATOMY OF A FALL and THE ZONE OF INTEREST, you’d likely agree there’s nothing this lady cannot do.
Potential upsets include:
Aïssatou Diallo Sagna & Suzy Bemba & Esther Gohourou (HOMECOMING)
Merve Dizdar (ABOUT DRY GRASSES)
Juliette Binoche (THE POT AU FEU)
Sakura Ando (MONSTER)
Considering this pool of candidates, I would be upset if the jury decides to recognize the actresses in FOUR DAUGHTERS or THE OLD OAK here. That, to me, would smell like a politically motivated choice and we don’t have space for that – especially not this year.
Best Director
Will win: Aki Kaurismäki (FALLEN LEAVES)
Should win: Jonathan Glazer (THE ZONE OF INTEREST)
For the top four categories, I see the jury faced with the general choice between old masters and fresh blood. Would they feel compelled to recognize legends like Aki Kaurismäki, Wim Wenders, Nuri Bilge Ceylan who have proved their mastery of the craft yet again? Or would they prefer to choose among a new generation of filmmakers who are trying things in exciting new ways?
I’m guessing there will be an attempt to divide the prizes between these two camps. And if for best director they end up choosing someone younger, then any of Jonathan Glazer (THE ZONE OF INTEREST), Jessica Hausner (CLUB ZERO), Alice Rohrwacher (LA CHIMERA) or even Ramata-Toulaye Sy for her debut feature BANEL & ADAMA could triumph here.
Prix du Jury
Will win: CLUB ZERO
Should win: PERFECT DAYS
CLUB ZERO received mixed reviews in Cannes. I really dug it though, and I can’t help thinking its brand of brash, dark humor would resonate with jury president Ruben Östlund. This is mostly a hunch but I suspect the jury would try to find a spot for it on the winners’ list.
Grand Prix
Will win: PERFECT DAYS
Should win: MAY DECEMBER
As seen below, I think this jury will give the top prize to a film that’s about breaking ground and reinventing the art form. Which led me to believe that the runner-up prize would be reserved for something a little more old-fashioned, if equally masterful. Wim Wenders’ PERFECT DAYS and Aki Kaurismäki’s FALLEN LEAVES would easily fit the bill.
Personally I’d love to see Todd Haynes’ layered, seductive MAY DECEMBER recognized somewhere, but I struggle to picture this jury being fans of (elevated) camp.
Palme d’Or
Will win: THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Should win: THE ZONE OF INTEREST
When all is said and done, it’s not really that hard a decision to make. THE ZONE OF INTEREST is one of those films that, as soon as the credits start rolling, you know you’ve seen a stone-cold masterpiece. You just know.
Of course truly groundbreaking films like this always polarize, so it could be an all-or-nothing situation. But I’m ready to not over-think it and go with my gut. If that doesn’t pan out, any of the following would also seem like a good bet:
PERFECT DAYS
FALLEN LEAVES
ABOUT DRY GRASSES
CLUB ZERO
ANATOMY OF A FALL
MONSTER
There are two films in the comp lineup that came across very much as message movies to me – THE OLD OAK and FOUR DAUGHTERS – and I sincerely do not wish to hear their names called tomorrow night. Obviously the jury has every right to name any movie the best, but then we are also entitled to judge them on their picks. Don’t fail us, Ruben.
The winners of the 76th Cannes Film Festival will be announced at the awards ceremony tomorrow, May 27, at 7:15 PM (CET).
20 Comments
My current predictions are along very similar lines:
Palme d’or: The Zone of Interest
Grand Prix: Anatomy of a Fall
Director: Aki Kaurismäki (Fallen Leaves)
Prix: TIE: The Old Oak and Club Zero
Screenplay: Monster
Actress: Léa Drucker (Last Summer)
Actor: Kōji Yakusho (Pefect Days)
Best Picture (Palme d’Or): Justine Triet, Anatomy of A Fall
Best Director: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Best Screenplay: Nuri Bilge Ceylan, About Dry Grasses
I’m going with Anatomy of a fall for the Palm
Okay, he are my predictions (mostly based on gut feeling):
Palm d´Or: Youth
Grand Prix: The Zone of Interest
Prix: The Pot au Feu
Director: Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Actor: Koji Yakusho, “Perfect Days”
Actress: Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore, “May December”
Screenplay: About Dry Grasses
And well i pose direct challenge to awards season with a QUESTION A MOST PRESSING URGENT QUESTION for them to ponder: ” at WHAT COST to the soul and heart of the Academy and what it supposed to STAND FOR what core of AMPAS in its spirit that takes BOTH high critical acclaim along with a RESPECTABLE as in large proportion of film audiences with them.
No doesnt need to be a STAR WARS or any old MCU movie etc…i think i made this clear countless times even though some that take aim at me choose overtly simplistic delusional conclusion that somehow i am an advocate for films of this callibre to be ‘given a shot’ to win best picture.. well no..it not black and white as that.
When you look at wikipedia and this is absolutely relevant to principle of the ‘little film that could’; that either hardly anyone has seen or cares about..or reflects on with much fondness or leave it mark and a lasting impression…but fact is there have in fact been some near great and simply outstanding independent films made that outdid BOTH CRITICALLY AND IN TERMS OF A HIT THAT TRULY RESONATED waaaay above that of EEAAO..EEAAO was oscar win whereby bar raised so unbearably low for a film that sought genuine broad appeal with it parodies and it genre bending- with questionmable success has to be said… backed up with resources and might of the RUSSO BROTHERS that notion that 100 million is successful bar for a MODERATE screen release semi independent film…and benchmark to compare it to ‘previous few years since pandemic and post pandemic’ this is the cancer that eating away at the integrity and true spirit and essence of the academy…they look at their awards season through CLOUDED OBSCURE SHORT TERMISM…. namely…the reactive societal issues of what by comparison to all opf oscar history is a mere blip on radar in minds of film goers and even more traditional critics…TRUE BENCHMARK OF CREDIBLE COMPARISON PUT EEAAO achievements into perspective and ANY independent film from this point on is can it match it with PRE- PANDEMIC OVERALL cinematic HISTORIC formline in BOTH CRITICAL ACCLAIM and box office success even for low budget film in TOP 25… as listed in wikipedia?
and if it can’t you genuinely got to challenge mentality of academy’s gullability and flawed logic of going for best picture winner that outperforms on critics markers this post pandemic period in last few years as opposed to being MUCH HARDER ON THEMSELVES AS AMPAS VOTERS SHOULD BE TO TAKE LONGER VIEW OF THEIR OWN HISTORY…
THE MODERN ERA GOES BEYOND ‘ME TOO ‘ ‘OSCAR SO WHITE’ AND ALL THAT CRAP!! IT GOES FROM ARGUABLY ROCKY THROUGH TO 80’S, 90’S, 2000’S TO BOUT 2010…30 YEARS! of modern oscar history…just blatantly and arrogantly disbanded and disregarded – last year top gun maverick, elvis and no different to years before yes! inc the parasite oscar win year…but THE MORE event MAINSTREAM high quality high critically acclaimed universally revered cinema achievements are TREATED AS A VEHICLE FOR OSCARS BID TO RESTRORE THEIR RATING CREDIBLITY ONLY TO TOTALLY USE AND EXPLOIT THE STAR POWER APPEAL FACTOR OF EVEN ONE OFF MASSIVE CINEMA ACHIEVEMENTS TRUE ONES YEAR ON YEAR…AS NOTHING MORE THAN OSCARS PLAYTHING…ONLY TO MISLEAD TIME AND AGAIN VERY BROADCAST RATINGS THAT DO MATTER THAT MUST MATTER….FOR SAKE OF OSCARS PURPOSE TO EXIST…
Scepticism is high still not just cos of whether format works or not. scepticism for the VERY demographic oscar for their own sake and their own legacy that SUPPOSED TO ENDURE NOT DIMINISH as has vbeen the case with choices they made far too much since Obama was elected..esp since he was defeated…
But what the FUK does it achieve to build list of snubs that is most unenviable in contrast to any other awards for any other institution in this planet? …and at WHAT COST TO AMPAS CREDIBLITY?
This is why we need to not automatically accept the status quo and challenge it though ampas and the guilds never have the dignitiy or humility or self respectabiltiy to understand and reconnect with their own TRUE PURPOSE as part of function within awards season,,,, but still through dialogue we have discussion we have here…people other people indirectly connected can spread conversation we have from AD more broadlyt in cyberspace..
But LISTENING to and giving overtly generous opportuntiy to ‘film festival ‘ ultra obscure fare…and then oscar elevating it way above i fear it will be we should all fear that too..waaay above likes of OPPENHEIMER, MAYBE DUNE II MAYBE KILLERS OF FLOWER MOON, MAYBE NAPOLEON, MAYBE ROOSEVELT, i genuonely think the academy be best served to stop leaning to extent like an old man relies leans on their walking stick to get around…isnt it time the academy stop putting so much stock and the guilds and awards season into the 90% obscure ultra luimited film festivals? sure film festivals have a right ot operate i respect that but why do they and ampas self justify themselves and isolate themselves even further by elevated levle of improtantce i call ‘self improtance’ of themese and issues that frankly out of film festivals mean little to most in broader community?
I think the idea that fiulm festival films as been reflected are somehow the antidote to oscars problems is just more misguided groupthink by the controlling authority within the academy…would it really be such a bad thing if major multi all star big screen cinema genuine memorable films of which there are many this year dominate for once?
i guarantee the year oscar to that UIS THE YEAR THEY START TO RECONNECT with broader community…that once cared truly about oscars that oscar ONCE RESPECTED…AS THEY DID for last 40 years! up till 2010..
As reflected from Sasha precise truthful fearless no holds barred reporting and INCREASING sources within hollywood amongst stars and prominent cinema historians and experts..there is a GROWING ALARMING gulf between common sense freedom of thought and the PC brigade activism..where the gulf is being shaped by the latter…and the former is under siege it true I SEEN IT IN MY STATE IN MY COUNTRY and sooner oscar soee it better AMPAS outlook will be..
They are treading a divisive path that will tear apart what AMPAS once stood for and by once— i not referring to yesteryear buyt saner era..where common sense for oscar contenders and winners trumped woke lunacy plaguing our society..
Problem is, Hollywood doesnt really make a lot of those films anymore and there aren’t a lot of real stars anymore. I suspect Oppenheimer and Flower Moon will be frontrunners if they don’t flop, but these sorts of films are further and fewer in between.
true to a point BUT holywood actually DO make films of callibre of some of fr better known oscar contenders of like i referred to in NOT TOO LONG AGO PAST.. they just CHOOSE TO IGNORE OR PAY LIP SERVICE TO THEM! -film going oscaar watchers can see righ THROUGH OSCARS PLOY! for instance lastt year when BY FAR MOST CRITICALLY ACCLAIMED film of the lot in TOP GUN MAVBERICK was nominated, NOBODY trusted the academy to take seroiusly MAVERICK as genuine oscar heavyweight…yet before woekism crap a film like this would been even BIGGER CHANCE now oscar watchers desert oscars on balance…leaving awards seaason floundering they dont NEED to elevate CANNES fiolm fesatival ilms they just nee to reconnect with very best truly of what film public revere combined with high critical acclaim IS IT THAT HARD? Awards season turns as they say ‘SALVAGE INTO A WARZONE!!’
It’s spread the wealth:
Screenplay: Yuji Sakamato, Monster
Actress: Merve Dizdar, About Dry Grasses
Actor: Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Camera d’Or: Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell, dir: Thien An Pham
Short Film Palme d’Or: 27, dir: Flóra Anna Buda
Special Mention: Far, dir: Gunnur Martinsdottir Schluter
Director: Tranh Anh Hung, The Pot au Feu
Prix du Jury: Fallen Leaves, dir: Aki Kaurismaki
Grand Prix: The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
I guess this means the Palme for Triet
And yes, Justine Triet won the Palme d’Or for Anatomy of a Fall
Yep, as I predicted 🙂
Triet won..!
Merve Dizdar’s Best Actress win for Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s About Dry Grasses was the surprise of the ceremony.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8dbdf7571460544283d2a36782dd692e7360344b4be37776ace47a92a9d4dd3e.png
Really looking forward to see it!
I suppose these aren’t too surprising. The interesting thing to see now is whether The Anatomy of a Fall will become an Oscar player like recent Palme winners, or if The Zone of Interest or something else in the lineup will.
Perhaps I’m just being cautious about these movies’ chances but at the moment I feel like Anatomy of a Fall might be able to get a screenplay nomination along with May December maybe contending for Portman and screenplay while The Pot-au-Feu becomes a big name in International Feature. In relation to The Zone of Interest, I just think that “a stylistically esoteric German-language movie about a person who ran Auschwitz that reflects on the banality of evil” might be too tough a sell to Academy voters.
An Asian majority of winners?
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I know the director of ‘zone of intersts ‘ is Jewish I respect that however … it become clear to.me even some of younger generation Jewish filmmakers are taking the bait of depicting horror WITHOUT showing anything as though as is toxic consensus reflected through awards season direction time n time again.. let NOT address REAL difficult issues let skate over thrn and tell more pedestrian family story.. well I noooo idea what drugs or substances film critics are on.. but I think we should all fear in today’s day and age a film ESPECIALLY of the Holocaust ESP one of ‘ zone of interest’ that is particularly bout family of TRUE FACTUAL LONGEST SERRVING COMMANDANT OF RUNNING BLOODY AUSHWITZ … and suddenly it OK to award films that show their family lives? Give me a FUKIN break are we trying to fukun HUMANIZE mass muderers now are we?
Add insult to I jury but trust Cannes use sound judgement let not forget ANTISEMETISM IS RIFE IN FRANCE .. thry failed not for first time to protect Jewish community when French muslim extremists initiated a massacre few yrs ago in innocent Jewish supermarket ..what did French govt do about it ? a shallow condemnation but even after the arrests there was little no effort to address the glaring racial tensions ignited by a complacent French govt and non committal society in France to protecting TRUE democratic communities in that country t.
Furthermore French governments have learnt NOTHING since the time of fall of Hitler’s regime.. they pay lip service to their allies.. and their institutions are a divisive mess..
They gladly toe the PC line.. and sneakily like in Cannes proclaim a film like ‘ zone of interest ‘ as a damn masterpiece..such is naivety and disturbing trend of critics via Cannes… that they back in Cannes which is run is is a hyproduxt as institution in cinema but it by-product of the French govt diluted principles. Of anti American.. anti western sentiment … happened repeatedly with lack of gratitude and respect to the western alliance that save France from oblivion!in WWII.
Yet… through no fault of Glazer’s but due to ‘ expectation ‘ that no lessust be phasized deserves be heavily criticised the book is FICTION to which zone of interest film is adapted by.. furthermore.. bringing to life a film that dares to trivialise fictionalise behind scenes of mass murder and genocide operations of Auschwitz show a ‘normal’ life behind scenes of commandant of AUSHWITZ the man who orchestrated 1 million plus of mass murder and extermination of Jews and other minorities … and we supposed to somehow embrace despite film makers efforts to as critics say ‘ convey innervhorrors’ well tbh who the FUK CARES about the ‘ horrors ‘ within. Pathologically sick twisted commandant of history’s most infamous evil death site..period!! In context it a holocaust drama specifically that seeks to show the life of evil twisted orchestrati4 of Hitler’s own aushwitz death camp… you cannot contrary what deluded critics say declare a film that abstractly not literally or shockingly necessarily depicts true nagnitude of commandants direct invcement in crimes u frankly have to be brainwashed by Cannes propaganda too heavily influenced by French Governmental complacency… it no wonder pple put off by excess dominance in Oscar season of film festival contenders… UNLESS it sociological mdg type drama reflects direct to rage and fury of Twitter verse activism extremes … but if it not like zone of interest isn’t waste the content of film potential by not addressing core of REAL HORROR that the nazi commandant orchestrated obscure it and redefine family ‘ugliness and horror’ which NOTHING COMPARED to commandants actual crimes against humanity… I would hope the academy ignore zone of interest … fiction story supplanting real historic characters but not showing no less commandant horrible crimes yea that bullshit everyone .
If we start doing films no less bout leadership of any form of genocide try to excuse it OT alternatively to justify alternate fo of ‘horror’ other than showing what and how they sent millions to their deaths … ANY LEAD commander of operation similar to the holocaust in history that slaughtered millions of we to not show it.. in circumstances e of mass murder…fir it to be a film truly resonates u simply cannot expect a film impression yo last and resonate beyond it ‘ festival award’ A24 is going more more down a path of exploring ‘alternative ‘ for sake of appeasing those that want censorship.. this is fake truth telling fact it fictiokn book adaptation .. heaven help Oscar if this is Oscar nominated… who cares about family tensions problems of commandant who frankly likely claimed my late grandfathers life … miracle he escaped … it a disgrace Cannes are a disgrace… should embraced Killers of Flower Moon at least