This year, almost everyone said that the Oscars were “back to normal,” so will that be the case with this year’s Tony Awards? Last year was the first awards since COVID darkened every theater in New York City, and A Strange Loop and The Lehman Trilogy took the top honors of the night. I am keeping my fingers crossed that Kimberly Akimbo can score a slew of nominations, and I am rooting for revivals like Parade and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street as well as stars Sean Hayes, Jessica Chastain, and a big puppet tiger.
This is the first time we have predicted the Tony Awards at Awards Daily, so let’s see how we do!
Best Musical
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Watch out for: A Beautiful Noise, The Neil Diamond Musical
Nine musicals are eligible for the Tony’s top award, but this feels rather…clear? Even though there was a lot of nostalgia surrounding the closing of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s The Phantom of the Opera, that sentiment will not carry over to Bad Cinderella. Almost Famous was criticized for not being able to transfer from beloved film to rollicking stage show. KPOP only played a handful of performances.
Best Revival of a Musical
Camelot
Into the Woods
Parade
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Watch out for: Bob Fosse’s Dancin’
It stings that only four shows will make the cut for this category considering that only six musicals are eligible. Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot is the most recent production, and it was praised for its ravishing crafts and gorgeous score. Even with Aaron Sorkin revising the book, the New York Times review suggested that the production cannot overcome the script’s problems. Will that matter with this being the first revival of the show in thirty years? Jason Robert Brown’s Parade is timelier now than it was when it debuted in 1998, and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street is one of the hottest tickets in town right now with Josh Groban returning to Broadway. I originally had Dancin’ in over Camelot, but, perhaps, the latter show has a better chance to get for some performances than the latest Bob Fosse revival?
Best Book of a Musical
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Book of a Musical and Best Musical don’t always line up, but it has the last 3 years? Can A Beautiful Noise knock something out? Musical biopics tend to get in–Ain’t Too Proud, Tina: The Tina Turner Musical, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical all made the cut–so who does Neil Diamond replace? & Juliet? New York, New York?
Best Original Score
Bad Cinderella
Kimberly Akimbo
Leopoldstadt
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Watch out for: Life of Pi
Am I crazy for including Lloyd Webber’s Bad Cinderella? Oh, probably. Since & Juliet and A Beautiful Noise are ineligible, that opens up two slots. During the merged, COVID year, The Lightning Thief: The Percy Jackson Musical was the only eligible original musical, so this category was comprised of music from plays.
Best Direction of a Musical
Kimberly Akimbo
Parade
Into the Woods
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Watch out for: New York, New York
Revivals, revivals, revivals! Thomas Kail won this category for Hamilton, and his vision of Sondheim’s musical is not to be missed. When he wants it to be dark, it’s pitch black, but then he gives Annaleigh Ashford the room to spread her comic wings in an iconic role. When I saw Parade, I thought Michael Arden’s direction was the clearest and most precise vision of any show that I saw on that trip. With minimal staging, he allows the material to speak for itself.
Best Choreography
& Juliet
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Watch out for: Bad Cinderella
Susan Stroman may miss for direction, but she should be mentioned here.
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Annaleigh Ashford, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Michaela Diamond, Parade
Victoria Clark, Kimberly Akimbo
Adrianna Hicks, Some Like It Hot
Phillippa Soo, Camelot
Watch out for: Anna Uzele, New York, New York and Lorna Courtney, & Juliet
Ashford is the horniest and silliest Lovett that I have ever seen, and Diamond is such an incredible force in Parade. Can anyone beat Clark’s joyous, beautiful performance as a young girl trying to outrun her illness? Clark left me on the floor.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Christian Borle, Some Like It Hot
Brian D’Arcy James, Into the Woods
J. Harrison Ghee, Some Like It Hot
Josh Groban, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Ben Platt, Parade
Watch out for: Will Swenson, A Beautiful Noise and Andrew Burnap, Camelot
Platt or Groban? Groban’s performance as the avenging barber is a more everyday take on character. Will voters go for his subtler choices? Fingers crossed that D’Arcy James’ performance as The Baker makes the cut.
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Robyn Hurder, A Beautiful Noise
Alli Mauzey, Kimberly Akimbo
Bonnie Milligan, Kimberly Akimbo
NaTasha Yvette Williams, Some Like It Hot
Betsy Wolfe, & Juliet
Watch out for: Julia Lester, Into the Woods
This is Milligan’s to lose. Her sly, scheming (but caring) aunt is a fan favorite. I want Ruthie Ann Miles to get in for her Beggar Woman from Sweeney.
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Justin Cooley, Kimberly Akimbo
Jordan Donica, Camelot
Kevin Del Aguila, Some Like It Hot
Gaten Matarazzo, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Alex Newell, Shucked
Watch out for: Alex Joseph Grayson, Parade
Does Newell take this in a walk, or will they have competition from Cooley, who, at nineteen, holds his own with the legendary Clark? Newell should’ve received a nomination for the Tony Award winning revival of Once On this Island.
Best Play
Between Riverside and Crazy
Fat Ham
Leopoldstadt
Life of Pi
Prima Facie
Watch out for: Ain’t No Mo’ or The Thanksgiving Play
There is a lot of “bigness” going up against a lot of impressive intimacy in this category. Tom Stoppard’s latest Leopoldstadt, the sprawling, ambitious show that the American Theater Wing drools over and respects, and Life of Pi won 5 Olivier Awards when it debuted in the West End. Pulitzer Prize-winning Fat Ham transferred to Broadway after a sold-out run at the Public, and Jodie Comer is earning raves for her one-woman performance in Prima Facie. Between Riverside and Crazy won the Pulitzer in 2015 and finally made its way to New York.
Best Revival of a Play
Death of a Salesman
A Doll’s House
The Piano Lesson
Topdog/Underdog
Watch out for: The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window
There is a lot of pedigree in this year’s eligible play revivals. The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window is the first time the Lorraine Hansberry play has been brought back to Broadway since 1964, and the play opened on the final day of Tony Awards eligibility. It doesn’t hurt that you have Oscar Isaac and Rachel Brosnahan leading the way. Even though the revival of August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson closed in January, voters should still remember the performances by Samuel L. Jackson, John David Washington, and Danielle Brooks, and Topdog/Underdog returned this season with Corey Hawkins and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II. The Hudson Theatre, located on West 44th Street, may have housed two entries in this year’s race. Wendell Pierce led a critically-acclaimed production of Death of a Salesman for 17 weeks back in the fall, and Jessica Chastain plays Nora in the latest revival of A Doll’s House. Can they both get in?
Best Direction of a Play
Death of a Salesman
A Doll’s House
Fat Ham
Leopoldstadt
Life of Pi
Watch out for: Topdog/Underdog, The Piano Lesson
I feel a lot can happen here. Am I overestimating the latest Ibsen revival?
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Jessica Chastain, A Doll’s House
Jodie Comer, Prima Facie
Laura Linney, Summer, 1976
Audra McDonald, Ohio State Murders
Watch out for: Rachel Brosnahan, The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window
Audra McDonald could sneeze on a snare drum and get nominated, so even though Ohio State Murders closed early, don’t count her out. Summer, 1976 didn’t get the best reviews, but Linney has been nominated 5 times and has never won. Brosnahan could swap into one of those places since The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is airing now and it just opened, so watch out.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Sean Hayes, Good Night, Oscar
Oscar Isaac, The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window
Wendell Pierce, Death of a Salesman
Marcel Spears, Fat Ham
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Watch out for: Corey Hawkins, Topdog/Underdog, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Between Riverside and Crazy, Jefferson Mays, A Christmas Carol
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Daniel Brooks, The Piano Lesson
Faye Castelow, Leopoldstadt
Sharon D. Clarke, Death of a Salesman
Nikki Crawford, Fat Ham
Kara Young, Cost of Living
Watch out for: D’Arcy Carden, The Thanksgiving Play
Best Performance by a Features Actor in a Play
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
David Krumholtz, Leopoldstadt
Arian Moayed, A Doll’s House
Brandon Uranowitz, Leopoldstadt
David Zayas, Cost of Living
Watch out for: André De Shields, Death of a Salesman
I am really iffy on that Zayas mention, but I am sticking with it!
14 Comments
For the uninitiated, check out what’s surely a highlight of this year on broadway and is likely to become a broadway standard
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHuDodgiDIQ
Why are they even allowing four other nominees in Best Leading Actress In A Play? Aren’t they embarrassed to be listed alongside Jodie Comer? Oh well, they can all give her a Standing O when she goes up to get her award.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/77be986969b26d2ef559b6761347972623ee7f9472f5f4b2bc5397a154b3ced5.jpg
So would Newell taking the award for best actor be equilvalent to admitting that Alex Newell is one gender and not non-binary?
It seems the Emmys have some understanding of the practicality of splitting people up into genders, at least for basic classification purposes.
Let me know if I got it wrong, I’m genuinely curious
https://variety.com/2023/legit/features/shucked-alex-newell-tonys-broadway-1235592937/
Well, I suppose it’s admirable that they (Alex) chose one category to keep females competitive, but abolishing the male/female divide will simply have a lot more women losing.
So if people are taking thesmelves out of either category who feel non-binary, that’s just picking the wrong thing to protest in my opinion and you’re shooting yourself in the foot because you’re just taking yourself out of an award. It also hurts others because that would potentially help the show if you won an award, so I can’t say I respect that: It’s not a worthy cause (because it will lose women awards, and it hurts your producers)
I think Alex entering is the best and I think the policy of chosing the gender of the character or chosing either gender might work best.
Now I’ve not seen these musicals and only a handful of them have released their scores.
But I think you seriously underestimate New York, New York. I know some reviews haven’t been kind, but it scored big at the recent Outer Critics Circle noms and, well, it takes place in New York where most of the Tony voters reside. Plus it just opened and it looks to be the most likely Big Ticket item for the Summer Vacation crowd. The Tony Awards know one thing, they love to reward musicals that need recognition.
When the awards actually happen, they seem to be favoring smaller shows, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Shucked won the whole shebang. I don’t think a musical based on country music has ever won, and considering the score is written by top country music songwriters (who also happen to be from the queer community) I feel like voting for this show will do two things, reward the best show while also being a political statement.
As for revival, many will see this as a battle between Sondheim shows, even though a lot of Sondheim shows underperform in this category. And with Merrily coming this December, voters might need to detox from so much Sondheim following the legend’s death. Look for Parade to sneak in and win. Like you said, it’s timely. And it’s properly critical of Southern Culture, so it will help the people who voted for Shucked cleanse their souls.
But overall, I have to say thanks for the article! It wouldn’t be hard if there’s a writer on staff based in the NY area. It would be great to see more Broadway news, even though, to be honest, only springtime matters.
has anyone seen all these musicals?
It must be prohibitively expensive. I imagine Tony voters are comped the prices.
I admire the author of this piece for at least attempting to tackle the subject
I’m in Chicago. I wait for the Pre-broadway shows. For example, we’re getting the Betty Boop show in the fall. Britney Spears show fell through, not being produced or not coming to Chicago. We also get the road shows. I can just barely afford the Chicago Broadway shows and have to pick & choose. Yep, I would imagine those tickets to Broadway shows is mightly expensive.
I spend about $116-149 (on average) for a Chicago Broadway show. I’m doing good seeing ONE show.
In the fall, Hamilton is returning (I wanna go again), the Louis Armstrong show and Betty Boop coming to Chicago, pre-broadway. (That’s about $300-400 for those 3 shows)
I would imagine there are many regional theaters in the area doing great work. I live in Philly and I find many productions are better than broadway shows I’ve seen. Plus they are cheaper and they are in much smaller venues.
WHo cares if you never get to see Hamilton. There are dozens of shows as good as or better.
The thing is, there are so few precursors to rely on. In fact there is nothing like the GG or the SAG or anything to use, since most include off-Broadway as well. Usually it’s easy since there are only a few options, but this year there are lots of new productions with COVID becoming less of a factor.
Predicting the winners at this point is quite difficult since there are so many shows that could win. Most years gone by there is only one or two new musicals of note and a runaway revival. And Best Play often goes to a recent Pulitzer winner or a playwright of note.
There is actual competition in many of the categories and potential winners could even fall short of a nomination.
Hopefully the Tony Broadcast can showcase all of it. Normally the stuff from the also-ran shows can be boring as hell, but not this year.
NY and Broadway seems to be a “closed” community. They all know everybody in NY and seem to vote for the “veterans” and the Broadwayites.
…and the occasional movie star who comes to “find themselves” by “getting back to their roots”
That sounds amazing. I hate predicting the winners based on precursors. If you can base predictions on everything else, that’d be my jam
hooray – colton ryan got nominated!