The holidays are at last upon us. And you know what that means — that means filmmaker’s families gathering round the fire to watch Oscar screeners. Since the date change, this has always been the case. One week after New Year’s, Oscar ballots must be turned in. That means what happens THIS week will likely decide many of the nominations, give or take a party or two, a meet and greet or two.
So what movies do well at Oscar time? Well, it depends on the voters’ extended families. Are they art snobs? Are they blue-collar? Are they a mix of different types? Are they Bernie Sanders supporters? Are they mostly women? Are they demographically inclusive? A Best Picture winner will have to appeal across the board to all types of people. That is how “best” is defined with the preferential ballot. When you talk about winning Best Picture, it is never going to be the passion choice — at least not passion alone. It has to be both broadly liked as well as passionately loved.
It’s a huge mistake to discount the actual reasons why Green Book won. It revealed how much of a bubble Twitter is. And it showed the exact kind of movie that does well on a preferential ballot. It was the only feel-good movie in the race, with the exception of Black Panther, which did not have directing nor writing noms — the backbone of Best Picture, along with actors. Black Panther was never a threat to win because of that. So if you want to understand how you predict Best Picture, think about that family of oddballs gathered round the fire watching the screener pile. Which movie are they all mostly going to like? Which movies will they even all want to watch?
How people respond to movies, especially people you care about, influence how you like the movie. If you put on a film the critics are raving about and your family or friends group is unimpressed? That is going to make a difference in how you respond when it comes time to vote. Critics — high status folks on Twitter, whether Oscar bloggers or not — are 100% invested in virtue signaling. To them, Green Book winning was tantamount to Trump getting elected (I’m not even kidding). But to the friends and family around the fire? Green Book would have played like gangbusters. White, black, male, female — doesn’t matter: Green Book would have been a hit.
The films that will do well over the holidays with the fam around the fire are going to be: movies that have a LOT of buzz, and movies with big stars. Big stars kind of rule any time, anywhere, which bodes well for movies like Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Critical acclaim will likely drive Parasite and 1917 to the top of the pile. Knives Out for sure. Probably Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. But those two films, like The Irishman, also have stumbling blocks: for Parasite, there are still people who don’t like to watch movies with subtitles and simply won’t. And with The Irishman, there are people who can’t or won’t or don’t find the time to watch a three-and-a-half-hour movie. With, 1917, the gory landscape of war could seem too depressing over the holidays, but of course, it’s an epic action-packed thrill to watch, so there is no way people skip it.
The first hurdle is getting voters to watch the movies. All of this hype from Telluride to right now is about that, bringing the horse to water to see if he or she will drink. Whether voters drink or not is ultimately out of the hands of influencers and publicists. But the aim is to get them to put that movie on top of the pile.
Once they do watch the movies, which ones will do well? I suspect that of all of them, Ford v Ferrari could get the biggest boost from the screener pile, being that it is an enjoyable movie that many people will be surprised by. They think it’s going to be just another racing movie, but once they actually watch it they will see that it’s actually driven by great writing, directing, and acting. In short, it has it all. It’s a little ridiculous that it isn’t being hailed as one of the best films of the year — but hey, critics gonna do what they do.
With this in mind, here is a pre-Globes prediction list.
Keep in mind these golden rules:
— Passion drives nominees in all categories, including Best Picture, BUT
— Passion alone does not drive winners in Best Picture
BEST PICTURE
FRONTRUNNERS — Looks to be a four-way race at the moment:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood vs. The Irishman vs. Parasite vs. 1917
Other Nominees
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari
Bombshell or Little Women
What else could benefit if Little Women doesn’t quite cut the mustard for the female director vote?
The Farewell
Hustlers
Potential spoilers:
Knives Out
Dolemite Is My Name
Uncut Gems
The Two Popes
BEST ACTOR
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Also possible:
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
George MacKay, 1917
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
BEST ACTRESS
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Also possible:
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Also possible:
Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Also possible:
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Florence Pugh, Little Women
BEST DIRECTOR
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Also possible:
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Safdie brothers, Uncut Gems
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Bong Joon-Ho and Jin Won Han, Parasite
The Safdie brothers, Uncut Gems
Krysty Wilson-Cairns and Sam Mendes, 1917
Also possible:
Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name
Rian Johnson, Knives Out
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, and Jason Keller, Ford v Ferrari
Lena Waithe, Queen & Slim
Charles Randolph, Bombshell
Trey Edward Shults, Waves
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Steve Zaillian, The Irishman
Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker
Also possible:
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
Daniel Destin Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman
Also possible:
The Lighthouse
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
A Hidden Life
Parasite
EDITING
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Parasite
Also possible:
1917
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
Uncut Gems
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit
Also possible:
Parasite
Joker
Little Women
A Hidden Life
The Aeronauts
Ad Astra
SOUND MIXING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Joker
Rocketman
SOUND EDITING
Ford v Ferarri
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Avengers: Endgame
Joker
COSTUME DESIGN
Dolemite Is My Name
Rocketman
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Also possible:
Downton Abbey
The Irishman
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Judy
VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
The Irishman
The Aeronauts
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
ORIGINAL SCORE
1917
Marriage Story
Little Women
Joker
Ford v Ferrari
ORIGINAL SONG
“Stand Up,” Harriet
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen II
“Spirit,” The Lion King
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman
Also possible:
“A Glass of Soju,” Parasite
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“Glasgow,” Wild Rose
MAKEUP AND HAIR
Bombshell
Dolemite Is My Name
Joker
Also possible:
Downton Abbey
Judy
Little Women
ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
Missing Link
The Lion King
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Also possible:
I Lost My Body
Abominable
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
For Sama
Apollo 11
American Factory
Honeyland
Knock Down the House
Also possible:
Advocate
The Apollo
Aquarela
The Biggest Little Farm
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
The Great Hack
Maiden
Midnight Family
One Child Nation
INTERNATIONAL FILM
Parasite, South Korea
Pain and Glory, Spain
Les Misérables, France
Atlantics, Senegal
Honeyland, North Macedonia
Also possible:
The Boy Who Harnassed the Wind, UK
Beanpole, Russia
The Painted Bird, Czech Republic
Truth and Justice, Estonia
Those Who Remained, Hungary
Corpus Christi, Poland