Predictions Friday – It’s Not What WE Think, It’s What THEY Think

I’ve been saying it for a long time now, so long that I assume everyone already knows this — but when I read Oscar Twitter it’s pretty clear that the message has been forgotten: it isn’t what bloggers think, nor critics, not even the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. What matters is what the industry thinks. It’s an even harder lesson to learn now than it ever has been because we’re all part of a daily conversation that is sort of like group jump-roping. You can join in any time, you can opt-out any time but the conversation moves regardless. That can distort perception, just as it does with politics. It isn’t real until the votes start to come down. Each win puts chips behind a name or a film. And each loss has an impact on a contender, as we all found with Inside Llewyn Davis. That was a movie that backed 100% by “the conversation” before the awards started coming down. It placed where it needed to: the AFI’s top ten films and got into “Comedy” at the Globes. It was a Critics Choice nominee but it wasn’t winning anything big — and missed at the Producers Guild and then when it came time for Oscar nominations it only got Sound and Cinematography nominations.

We thought it was a sure thing but it wasn’t a sure thing. Last year, Bohemian Rhapsody had no buzz online. None. It was not in the conversation whatsoever. Even by November 28, when I wrote this post — Can Bohemian Rhapsody earn a Best Picture nomination — it was considered a “controversial” idea. Then it started winning, it started showing up all over the place. It was as stealthy a contender as I’ve ever seen. But it was not part of the conversation and was very much a product of thinking the race is about what WE think, not what THEY think.

I see a lot of Oscar newbies making this mistake, saying what people are talking about now as any sign of what is going to go all the way. You’re not hearing people talk about what they LOVE, necessarily, but what they THINK will be Oscar bait. That means it’s a step removed from what they like. And honestly, though it isn’t that reliable, what you love is sometimes a better guide than what you think THEY will love.

The waiting is the hardest part. You just can’t know until you know. Until votes start coming down, until wins start being announced. And even then, in the early part of the race, you still don’t know what the larger consensus voters will do, what they’ll like, what they’ll shun. So you have to WAIT and wait and WAIT and wait and maintain a certain amount of skepticism.

Here are the things to remain skeptical about, at the moment – the answer to all these questions are maybe. Maybe not. Whatever people are saying now are just best guesses. Some will be right, some will be very very wrong.

1. Netflix is killing it this year. They are bringing back the glamour of Hollywood with their splashy “spare no expense” premieres. They are diligently trying to screen their films theatrically before dropping them on Netflix a month later. The upside is that everyone will be able to see these movies and be part of the conversation. The downside is that a movie like Dolemite Is My Name, for instance, could have used a big wide theatrical release to build buzz around Eddie Murphy’s performance. For whatever reason, despite that there are so many other streaming services getting into the game, people seem to want to blame Netflix for everything. I secretly think there is a little xenophobia going on there but I’ll never say it out loud. The top guy has a “foreign sounding” name and thus there is a little bit of fear and panic around his rise to power. I can’t prove it. It’s just something I think. Nonetheless, this is going to be the test. At first, I thought it would just be The Irishman — that they would make the Academy an offer it couldn’t refuse. But that they have three more movies – Marriage Story, The Two Popes, and Dolemite is My Name is shocking and unprecedented. Would you believe me if I said that all four deserve to get in? That is what I think. I am not naive enough to believe it will happen.  My friend Scott Feinberg is always saying to me that it isn’t true that “nobody knows anything” and that there is a lot that we know. And I’ll give him that. Maybe we know about 65 or even 75% of the thing. But that isn’t the whole story.
2. Is Joker going to be shut out or nominated at the Oscars? The internet says oh hell yes to nominations. But there are factors that must be considered going in, like how they respond to the character at all. But the fact that, despite how people see it and write about it, and despite it winning the Golden Lion in Venice it is still part of the DC universe. It has to be because it is. Heath Ledger already won an Oscar for The Dark Knight playing the Joker. But is his role unequivocal? If it is, none of this will matter. If there is a mass shooting between now and voting  begins that is going to shape how the film is discussed. It keeps making money, fans keep flocking to the stairs — the movie has created a hero while trying to make a case that he isn’t one. But he isn’t one because that is how stardom and heroism works in Hollywood. How will the Academy feel about that? I just don’t know.
3. What will the actors think of the technology in The Irishman? That remains an open question, though most will write it off as they wrote off that A Star is Born was the fourth remake of a familiar Hollywood trope. Will actors — who dominate the Academy — accept or reject this brand new way of showing youth on film? Will like it? Will they hate it? Hard to say but we’re soon to find out.
4. Just HOW good will 1917 be? We won’t  know until we see it in November.
5. Is Clint Eastwood back?
6. Will any woman director get in? Will any black actors get in? Will Asians be recognized in major categories?
7. Will the movies be popular? Will they choose popular movies?
8. Will there be shit storms? And if so, where will they make landfall and towards what movies? Will the Academy have a smooth ride or will the be hit with controversy?
9. Will Film Twitter go on an all-out war against a film as they did with Green Book last year? Will it not matter like it didn’t last year?
10. Are we going to see a film sweep, as we haven’t in a long time, or will it be a split year?

Those are the questions I have right now that need to be answered. Once they are, the race should not be that hard to figure out.

Here are Friday’s predictions.

Best Picture – Gold Derby believes it’s down to The Irishman vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I’m not sure I see it that way. They don’t see Jojo Rabbit as any kind of threat because in the Twitterverse it has been very divisive. As Tom O’Neil said to me, it isn’t the favorite of the “cool kids” on Film Twitter and I would say it might be being underestimated. Remember, how votes on the preferential ballot go down are two ways: 1) it wins on the first round — an overwhelming favorite that also wins at least 2 of the 3 major guilds: PGA, DGA and SAG ensemble. 2) it is a split vote with a recount. In that case, which film do voters feel OBLIGATED to push to the top of their ballots and why. I would take a wild guess that both the Irishman and Once Upon a Time would do better on a first round win than a recount.  Jojo Rabbit might benefit on a recount. Parasite would benefit on a recount.

The first five on your Best Predictions list should always match your DGA Best Director list:

Frontrunners

Seen–

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – acting, writing, directing, crafts
2. The Irishman – acting, writing, directing, crafts
3. Jojo Rabbit – acting, writing, directing, crafts
4. Marriage Story -acting, writing, directing
5. Parasite – writing, directing
6. The Two Popes – acting, writing
7. Ford v Ferrari – acting, writing, crafts
8. Bombshell – acting
9. Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
10. Rocketman

Not seen–

1. 1917
2. Richard Jewell

Contenders

Little Women
The Farewell
Hustlers
Waves
Joker
Uncut Gems
Queen & Slim
Rocketman
Motherless Brooklyn

Best Director 

Seen —

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
3. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
4. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

Not seen–

1. Sam Mendes, 1917
2. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell

Contenders

Craig Brewer, Dolemite Is My Name
James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Jay Roach, Bombshell
Todd Phillips, Joker
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Marielle Heller, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
Trey Edward Shults, Waves
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Jordan Peele, Us
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Scott Z Burns, The Report

Best Actor — the conventional wisdom here is that it’s down to Adam Driver vs. Joaquin Phoenix – but I am feeling a wee bit of skepticism on that. I could be wrong, I probably am, but it doesn’t feel like either of those are a slam dunk for the reasons I mentioned above. Maybe. Maybe not. So that’s why I split the difference and would go with either Eddie Murphy or Jonathan Pryce.

1. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
3. Adam Driver, Marriage Story
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Contenders

Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, The Report

Best Actress – Frontrunners

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
5. Lupita Nyong’o, Us

Contenders

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Thomasin McKenzie, JoJo Rabbit
Elizabeth Moss, Her Smell
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
Mary Kay Place, Diane

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Tom Hanks, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman
4. Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
5. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite is My Name

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
5. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
2. Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
3. Parasite, Bong Joon-Ho, Jin Won Han
4. Dolemite is My Name, Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski
5. Queen & Slim, Queen & Slim

Not yet seen:

Richard Jewell, Billy Ray
1917, Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns

1. The Irishman, Steve Zaillian
2. Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
3. The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
4. Little Women, Greta Gerwig
5. Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver

1. Ad Astra
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Little Women

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. Jojo Rabbit
5. Ford v Ferrari

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Jojo Rabbit
5. The Aeronauts

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Rocketman
4. Avengers Endgame

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Rocketman
4. Avengers Endgame
5. The Irishman

1. Dolemite is My Name
2. Little Women
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Aeronauts
5. Judy

1. Ad Astra
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. The Irishman
4. The Aeronauts
5. Captain Marvel

1. Marriage Story
2. Ad Astra
3. Waves
4. Jojo Rabbit
5. Little Women

1. I’m Gonna Love Me Again – Rocketman
2. Into the Unknown – frozen II
3. Spirit – The Lion King
4. Speechless – Aladdin
5. Stand Up – Harriet