Predictions Friday – The Irishman Crashes the Party in a Big Way

The Irishman has now had its first screening at the New York Film Festival. It was also screened for a group of critics and journalists at the same time in Los Angeles. So far, the tweet reactions have been positive – about as good as it gets with a thing like this. There are two competing forces in this film – one that points to a potential future, and one that is very much rooted in the past. Though no reviews are allowed until after 5pm, I can say that anything actor-driven to this degree with a cast of this caliber is immediately in play at both the Oscars and SAG. Robert De Niro, Joe Pesci, Al Pacino lead the sterling ensemble, along with Harvey Keitel, Bobby Cannavale, and Ray Romano, to name just a few.

THE IRISHMAN: Pacino unhinges his jaw and swallows this thing whole like a python choking down a gazelle carcass, berserker mode king shit

— Charles Bramesco (@intothecrevasse) September 27, 2019

THE IRISHMAN is undeniably a 209-minute film. Brimming with actual cinematography and performances, it’s a motion picture made by a team of filmmakers that can certainly be described as existent. Truly one of the films 2019 has to offer.

— Kern (@kernetcetera) September 27, 2019

Thrilled to say that THE IRISHMAN is a tour de force. A raw meditation on legacy with impressive CGI that rarely distracted save the six or seven scenes where they accidentally aged the actors down to what I would guess is six or seven months old. Another Scorsese masterpiece.

Clint Eastwood has also announced his film Richard Jewell will get a December release date. The story of the wrongly accused man will land on December 13, with Paul Walter Hauser playing Jewell, also starring Sam Rockwell and Kathy Bates. How will that figure in? Hard to say.

For The Irishman, right now we’re looking at a potentially 8-11 nomination movie:

Picture
Director
Screenplay
Actor
Supporting Actor X2 (Pesci and Pacino)
Production Design
Cinematography
Editing
Costumes
Possibly Original Score
Possibly Visual Effects
Possibly Costumes
Possibly Sound Mixing

So, where does The Irishman fit into the race right now? Here is my own personal take on that:

Picture

1 – The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit
4 – Marriage Story
5 – Parasite
6 – Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7 – Ford V. Ferrari
8 – The Two Popes
9 – Waves

Then there are other films that are floating around, like The Farewell, Uncut Gems, Joker, and maybe even Judy, but overall, we’re still waiting for the big ones still left to see, namely:

1917
Little Women
Richard Jewell
Queen & Slim

Best Picture is by no means set – this is still very much a spitballing kind of thing, as we should all remember from last year’s First Man flatline. Anything can happen and nothing is guaranteed. We just have reactions from people, reviews and in one case – with Tarantino’s film, good box office.

How does it land? Right now, it seems to land as a major player:

Best Actor:
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Next tier:
Christian Bale, Ford V. Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, The Report

Best Actress:
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Thomasin McKenzie, JoJo Rabbit
Lupita Nyong’o, Us

Next tier:
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Elizabeth Moss, Her Smell
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Mary Kay Place, Diane

Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Next tier:
Matt Damon, Ford V. Ferrari
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. Waves
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Ray Liotta, Marriage Story

Supporting Actress:
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Taylor Russell, Waves
Annette Bening, The Report

The Irishman’s reception will be interesting to witness. This is the last festival stop before the AFI and after that, the awards start a-tumbling down.