This is the most fertile time for final Oscar voting, for surges and for smears. It’s like how Trump talked about the scary caravan of migrants heading into the midterms, and then stopped completely. Yeah, that. For the most part, that’s what’s happening right now too. The chatter will likely stop abruptly a minute past the ballot deadline. You don’t read think pieces about La La Land anymore, right? Right. Because it is no longer a threat to anyone: it’s simply what it was always intended to be — a movie.
The stakes are the highest they’ll ever be right this moment. But remember, it isn’t about changing one person’s mind. It’s about moving the needle just enough to shift the consensus. The problem with this year is that there is no consensus and there never has been. The consensus is kind of all over the place. Champion inclusion! Champion women! Champion popular movies! Wait, but what about pure cinema? Netflix? Marvel? Trump? Spike Lee? These are all pulses that push voters, or a consensus of voters, in a certain direction. You can usually take the temperature of how people are feeling about a movie if, say, Saturday Night Live makes a joke about it. That joke is usually skipping right off the top of what a consensus had concluded about a particular contender.
Most of the jokes around the Oscars this year will likely have to do with how short the telecast is promising to be, the categories that won’t be shown on air, and finally, the looming threat of the dreaded “popular film category.” It’s less likely they will revolve around the films themselves because everyone is in fear. Watch and panic mode. Movies have been “called out” by Twitter for various things, Green Book at the top of the list of the movies most attacked. But Bohemian Rhapsody too. Once there is a consensus built around how people perceive a certain film, then you start to see votes perhaps shifting. The question for all of us now is how will the new members shift Oscar voting? And since they represent 25% of all Academy voters, can their collective preferences even be predicted anymore at all? Do the old stats still hold? Does precedent matter?
Will new voters be perfectly fine with giving Black Panther Best Picture even without directing, writing, or acting nominations? Maybe. There are just too many variables to know how this shakes out, and in a chaotic season like this, people like me often rely on stats and precedent to help make sense of it. So what do the stats and precedents tell us right now?
1. No foreign language film has ever won Best Picture, because we’ve got the foreign language category.
2. No superhero film has ever won Best Picture.
3. No film since Grand Hotel has won Best Picture without nominations in directing, writing, or acting.
4. The DGA used to very accurately predict Best Picture, but in the era of the preferential ballot that hasn’t been the case:
2016 — DGA: Chazelle, Best Picture: Moonlight
2015 — DGA: Inarritu, Best Picture: Spotlight
2013 — DGA: Cuaron, Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
The DGA rule predicted things just fine in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2017. That means it still has a bit of an edge, but not when all the big guilds disagree.
With actors, Globe + SAG is a pretty sure bet that a winner has been determined. But in a year like this, where Emily Blunt won the SAG and where Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk wasn’t nominated for SAG or BAFTA, it’s an outcome that’s up in the air, though most suspect that publicity, notoriety, and veteran status alone will bring King the win.
Screenplay often decides Best Picture in the era of the expanded ballot. As in:
2009 — Original Screenplay + Director + Picture
2010 — Original Screenplay + Director + Picture
2011 — Director + Picture (The Artist was mostly silent)
2012 — Adapted Screenplay + Picture
2013 — Adapted Screenplay + Picture
2014 — Original Screenplay + Director + Picture
2015 — Original Screenplay + Picture
2016 — Original Screenplay + Picture
2017 — Director + Picture (Get Out won original screenplay instead)
So you see, screenplay is a big deal for Best Picture. It’s understandable that Get Out would win last year, considering ALL of the Best Picture heat was in original screenplay. Greta Gerwig was in the category for Lady Bird, as were The Shape of Water AND Get Out. In all other years, however, screenplay has mattered even more than director.
If we see Best Picture as down to Roma vs. Green Book (that’s PGA vs. DGA), there is a good chance that original screenplay could decide which of these two wins. Will voters, as they’re ticking down their ballots, pick Roma for foreign language before then choosing something else for Best Picture? Or will they so love the movie that they choose it for both? We’ve never seen, in all of Oscar history, when voters have a separate category for a movie that movie winning in both categories. Like animated, like documentary, like foreign language. They win in their category because that is what the category is all about. BUT BUT BUT the preferential ballot may screw with this completely.
Now, imagine you’re a voter and you’re thinking — okay so Roma is Best Foreign Language film. Now for Best Picture, I really liked Bohemian Rhapsody. Will that voter then put Roma second, even knowing that they already voted for it for Best Picture? Or do they sacrifice their Roma vote entirely, already knowing it’s winning in Foreign Language? Who can say?
It’s possible to overthink these things, as I did last year with Shape of Water, which I did not think could win based on its lack of a SAG ensemble nom. By the way, neither Green Book nor Roma has that nom. That is also something to consider when it comes to Best Picture. Just because the stat collapsed last year (AFTRA!) doesn’t necessarily mean it’s over for good. It could still be the deciding factor, meaning Best Picture goes to Black Panther or one of the other SAG ensemble nominees, like BlacKkKlansman or Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody or A Star Is Born.
But it’s possible that it could come down to the original screenplay category. If Roma wins screenplay, it’s winning Best Picture. If Green Book wins screenplay, there is a good chance it’s winning Best Picture. On the other hand, Roma isn’t exactly a screenplay-dependent movie — there is practically no dialogue.
In other words — IT’S STILL UNDECIDED.
BAFTA is no help either because they have a five picture lineup and a plurality vote, rather than the preferential system.
Either way, my friends, wow — it’s a hardcore puzzler. We will be posting our BAFTA predictions later today, but here are my current Oscar predictions, for what they’re worth. Which isn’t a lot.
Let’s do this. All 24 categories!
Best Picture
1. Green Book (PGA/Toronto/NBR/AARP/Globe)
2. Roma (DGA)
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Black Panther (SAG)
5. Vice
6. The Favourite
7. A Star Is Born
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (Globe)
Best Actor
1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (Globe/SAG)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (Globe)
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (Globe/SAG)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (Globe/SAG)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
3. Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
4. Sam Rockwell, Vice
5. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (Globe)
2. Marina de Tavira, Roma
3. Amy Adams, Vice
4. Emma Stone, The Favourite
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (DGA/Globe)
2. Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
3. Adam McKay, Vice
4. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Original Screenplay
1. Green Book — Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly (Globe)
2. Roma — Alfonso Cuaron
3. First Reformed — Paul Schrader
4. The Favourite — Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
5. Vice — Adam McKay
Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman — Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
2. If Beale Street Could Talk — Barry Jenkins
3. A Star Is Born — Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me — Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
5. Ballad of Buster Scruggs — Joel and Ethan Coen
Cinematography
1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. Cold War
4. A Star Is Born
5. Never Look Away
Editing
1. Vice
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. The Favourite
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Green Book
Production Design
1. Black Panther
2. The Favourite
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Roma
5. First Man
Sound Mixing
1. First Man
2. Bohemian Rhapsody
3. Black Panther
4. A Star Is Born
5. Roma
Sound Editing
1. First Man
2. Bohemian Rhapsody
3. Black Panther
4. A Quiet Place
5. Roma
Costume Design
1. Black Panther
2. Buster Scruggs
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. The Favourite
5. Mary Queen of Scots
Visual Effects
1. First Man
2. Ready Player One
3. Avengers: Infinity War
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
5. Christopher Robin
Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. Black Panther
4. Isle of Dogs
5. BlacKkKlansman
Original Song
1. Shallow — A Star Is Born
2. I’ll Fight from RBG — Diane Warren
3. Where Lost Things Go — Mary Poppins Returns
4. When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings — Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5. All the Stars — Black Panther
Makeup and Hair
1. Vice
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Border
Animated Feature
1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Mirai
Documentary Feature
1. Minding the Gap
2. RBG
3. Free Solo
4. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
5. Of Fathers and Sons
Foreign Language Feature
1. Roma (Mexico)
2. Cold War (Poland)
3. Capernaum (Lebanon)
4. Shoplifters (Japan)
5. Germany, Never Look Away
Live Action Short
1. Skin
2. Mother
3. Marguerite
4. Fauve
5. Detainment
Documentary Short
1. Period. End of Sentence.
2. Black Sheep
3. End Game
4. Lifeboat
5. A Night at the Garden
Animated Short
1. Bao
2. Late Afternoon
3. Animal Behaviour
4. One Small Step
5. Weekends