Love stories are more popular with the Academy than people might think. Although it always seems like there has to be some gravitas that isn’t always the case. If A Star is Born is the runaway winner this year, it will follow two straight years where love stories won Best Picture. The Shape of Water was a love story. It played on a backdrop of Trump’s America and bigotry, but at its heart it was a love story. Moonlight was about a lot of things, but at its heart it was a love story. A Star Is Born is mostly a love story, though there is addiction in there. At its heart, it’s not just a love story, it’s a famous love story Hollywood can’t quit. It must be said that A Star Is Born is, famously, a tragic love story as opposed to The Shape of Water or Moonlight. It’s more in line with Shakespeare in Love, with is also a tragic love story, or The English Patient, come to that.
A Star Is Born is also about Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper. She emerges as a screen presence, while he emerges as a director. The film’s success is as much about the success of its two stars than it is anything else. Do we need heroes now more than ever? Do we need success stories? Do we need love stories? Maybe. We’re surely going to find out in the next few months.
A Star Is Born will have to survive the intense scrutiny of awards season. It will have to maintain its dominance for the next four months. That is no easy feat. The Artist was the last film to do that, and before The Artist, Slumdog Millionaire. Both were love stories. Maybe love does conquer all.
Even though I’ve had my doubts about it all along, and do even now, I’m not sure anyone can predict anything else with confidence, at least not at the moment.
Where once I was warning you all that it was premature speculation to go all in for A Star Is Born early, now I have resigned myself that there is no other way to respond to the season. All I can do is offer up some caution, as someone who has seen this race unfold and has watched all of the ways it was surprising. Shakespeare in Love and Slumdog Millionaire existed at a time when a Best Picture contender could snowball its momentum to a consensus win. And that can still happen. Argo was one of those that steamrolled through the season. I will remind people, though, that its momentum didn’t really start until right around the time Ben Affleck missed out on a Best Directing nomination, which was close to the time he won the Golden Globes and Critics Choice back to back. It wasn’t way ahead back in October.
Weirdly enough, a similar thing happened with The Hurt Locker and The King’s Speech. That is why I hesitate in predicting a film to sweep the whole season AND win Best Picture. After La La Land lost to Moonlight, one must always proceed with caution when it comes to Best Picture.
How the Gotham Awards shifted the conversation
Remember the key rule of Oscar watching: every win (or sometimes every nomination) changes the conversation. We must remember that the Gothams are decided by the smallest group of critics imaginable. Five people decide them. It’s no way to signal how a consensus will vote, but it does tell us a few things. What it told me was that people may end up being split on Beale Street, BlackKklansman, and Sorry to Bother You. It seemed that there was a clear effort to reward all three. In so doing, it prevents one from becoming a nomination leader and getting a big bump, as Paul Schrader’s First Reformed and Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite did.
The Gothams were clearly trying to nominate women of color, and in so doing step outside the bounds of “Oscar influencer.” They always make a point of saying they aren’t meant to be like the Oscars. But they all have a very bizarre relationship with the Oscars. Half of the time they act as though their picks are going to be, and should be, wildly different from what “they” choose. The other half of of the time, they are rooting for those same favorites to show up at the Oscars. It has always been and remains a love/hate relationship.
All the same, I think the movie that got the biggest bump from the Gothams was First Reformed, which now has more than enough momentum to push ahead of some other films. And indeed, it is one of the best films of the year. It is one that will only become more important over time, as audiences discover its riches. It isn’t particularly an audience friendly movie — no easy answers, hard questions — but it is a cinema lover’s dream.
I do feel uncertain about the direction of the race at the moment. But here is a rundown of what it FEELS like at the moment, which doesn’t tell us much.
Remember, it was supposed to have been a big deal that The Shape of Water didn’t get any Gotham nominations. Obviously it turned out not to matter, and thus, it doesn’t matter if Roma didn’t get any. When just five people are nominating these, you can’t glean anything about Oscar from them EXCEPT in one way: they could possibly signal passion in some respect. It’s always good for a frontrunner to show up there, if it qualifies, because to win now you need to hit every marker. Obviously, rules are made to be broken.
Best Picture frontrunners
A Star Is Born — made $100 million without breaking a sweat, is close to becoming an American phenomenon. Whatever it has going for it, it’s captivated many across the country. If any movie can boost Oscar ratings and bring the Oscars back to the mainstream, this one is it. Magnetic, electric singing from both Cooper and Gaga make this movie what it is, but the love story matters too.
Green Book — flying under the radar, it’s the one true blue feel-good movie of the bunch. I’m not sure what Film Twitter will make of it. We’ll just have to wait and see, but if I know my Film Twitter, it’s not going to be one of their favorites. It will, however, be that one movie you can sit anyone down in front of and they will get it, if not love it — and you know what that means. Green Book has stayed in my heat long after I saw it. I can’t wait to see it again. I was particularly won over by the film’s two leads, Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali.
Roma — Roma is a film that must be seen on the big screen, the reason being you have to pay attention. You must immerse yourself in Alfonso Cuaron’s beautifully and meticulously curated cinematic memoir of his young life growing up in Mexico. It is a slow burn, the lives of one family’s day-to-day reality that tells a story of a woman no one would think much about if they saw her cleaning up the family home. Little do they know, little do we know, the life she must endure. It’s just a beautiful film from beginning to end, easily of the year’s best.
First Man — despite film Twitter’s eruption of antipathy, and grumblings of Academy members not getting it or not liking it, there is no denying this is the year’s towering cinematic achievement. When you are talking about highest achievements in film, you can’t ignore something this spectacular. You can, but you will really test the limits of what defines Best Picture. First Man is a reminder of a dead president’s dream to put a man on the moon. It is a celebration of science, American ingenuity, and above all, it’s a rumination on grief. Neil Armstrong was an American hero. His story is worth being told. There have been some spectacularly ridiculous takes on this movie out there, so much so that it seems like First Man is running for president. You know, it is a movie, folks. It’s a movie. A work of art. Remember those?
If Beale Street Could Talk — this film appears to have a lot of passion behind it, which is essential in getting a film into the Best Picture race. The voice of James Baldwin rings through loud and clear, as does the emerging voice of Barry Jenkins. He also gets a bump from having won Best Picture two years ago.
Can You Ever Forgive Me — Marielle Heller has made nothing short of one of the best films of the year. Anchored by a great performance by Melissa McCarthy, and supporting actor (one of the best of the year also) Richard E. Grant, here is a pitch perfect comedy about the lonely life of a forger. It’s not often anyone bothers to tell a story like this, about a social undesirable. She has no career, no love life, just a cat — a cat who gets sick. She begins forging letters of famous writers and eventually brags that she can out Dorothy Parker Dorothy Parker.
The Favourite — Yorgos Lanthimos’ made a bawdy, female -ed period drama that showcases some of the best acting of the year, without a doubt. Emma Stone is particularly vibrant in the film, but so are co-stars Olivia Colman and Rachel Weisz. It’s an indulgent treat to spend so much time with film that depends so much on its women.
BlackKklansman — Spike Lee’s film still resonates all of these months later. Lee never erased his own style, and it is his style through and through, but it’s the film’s ending, a forceful indictment of what Donald Trump represents, leaving us with the lasting image of Heather Heyer, who was run over when a white supremacist plowed through a crowd of protesters. Trump distracts us daily chasing shiny objects of outrage, but Lee’s film insists that we never forget, and leaves us with a lasting imagine of what exactly has happened to this country.
First Reformed — the Gothams gave a boost to Paul Schrader’s masterpiece. I have to admit that I wasn’t sure if Oscar season would remember this film, which not only came out early in the year, but doesn’t check the boxes the way movies now must do. Instead, he tells this story very much in his own voice, with each character stating a different perspective of a long conversation on God and mankind. Schrader has made what I think is his most personal film. Watching it a second time I’m convinced of it. He decides, as the film goes along, where the main character’s conclusions should take him. I was surprised by how it ended. I didn’t expect, in the end, he would champion love. It is exceptional and one of the best films of the year.
Vice — I have this here as a placeholder knowing absolutely nothing about the movie other than what I’ve seen in the trailer. Can it pull itself together and land in the Best Picture race? Well, The Big Short did. It came in at the last minutes and stayed, winning Adam McKay a well-deserved writing Oscar. We’ll see. I’m holding a place.
Widows – Steve McQueen’s heist film will likely land Viola Davis a Best Actress nomination. With a crackling script by Gillian Flynn, it seems like it will do very well once it opens.
Black Panther — this movie should get a nomination, without question. I just don’t know if it will. I remain on the fence. I think it deserves to be included, but I also know that the Academy remains averse to superhero movies. But we will see how it plays out.
Contenders still
Eighth Grade
Mary Queen of Scots
Leave No Trace
Hereditary
BEST ACTRESS
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Viola Davis, Widows
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Contenders
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Katherine Hahn, Private Life
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King, Beale Street
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Contenders
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave no Trace
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
Danai Gurira, Black Panther
BEST ACTOR
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Contenders
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Contenders
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Contenders
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham
Contenders
Ben is Back, Peter Hedges
Sorry to Bother You, Boots Riley
Tully, Diablo Cody
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, A Star Is Born
Josh Singer, First Man
Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Contenders
Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen, Widows
Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Leave No Trace
CINEMATOGRAPHY
A Star Is Born
First Man
Roma
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Contenders
First Reformed
Cold War
Green Book
EDITING
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Green Book
Vice
Contenders
Can You Ever Forgive Me
BlackKklansman
The Front Runner
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
Roma
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
SOUND MIXING
A Star Is Born
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Mary Poppins Returns
SOUND EDITING
First Man
A Star Is Born
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
COSTUME DESIGN
The Favourite
First Man
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
VISUAL EFFECTS
First Man
Annilhilation
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Deadpool 2
Solo
ORIGINAL SCORE
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Sisters Brothers
Vice
Mary Poppins Returns
That’s all I have for you today, my friends. We’re not quite into the last gasp, but we’re getting closer.